Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 17.733741 20.222218 22.898893 25.987761 29.449562 33.205138 37.583319
2025-02-09 13.965282 17.324625 21.213433 26.030499 31.818580 38.529928 46.880487
2025-02-16 11.767866 15.419687 19.852130 25.596182 32.807589 41.522931 52.810889
2025-02-23 10.322910 14.200874 19.109202 25.726898 34.358064 45.168486 59.659040
2025-03-02 9.278269 13.315807 18.614883 26.006732 35.966291 48.823460 66.562682
2025-03-09 8.346886 12.458469 18.038378 26.068578 37.213386 51.999659 72.937742
2025-03-16 7.467121 11.565478 17.305033 25.809021 37.940071 54.446125 78.383823
2025-03-23 6.865488 11.001995 16.964319 26.035976 39.303051 57.770236 85.131682
2025-03-30 6.504816 10.753776 17.041122 26.840265 41.496718 62.318784 93.765517
2025-04-06 5.920549 10.103314 16.459853 26.610524 42.139261 64.655951 99.316980
2025-04-13 5.156461 9.095129 15.248624 25.324851 41.101445 64.460816 101.125056
2025-04-20 4.896431 8.880037 15.249795 25.900954 42.902176 68.513865 109.362708
2025-04-27 4.658015 8.688463 15.285499 26.550970 44.882193 72.976804 118.503718
2025-05-04 4.281512 8.226313 14.843631 26.394845 45.571569 75.491359 124.779425
2025-05-11 3.906731 7.730023 14.301017 26.022113 45.866711 77.372579 130.109790
2025-05-18 3.651050 7.424890 14.058894 26.131735 46.945331 80.522699 137.556322
2025-05-25 3.447640 7.197341 13.932136 26.423515 48.330419 84.208378 145.993582
2025-06-01 3.226735 6.915863 13.686086 26.483531 49.312317 87.262707 153.510872
2025-06-08 2.979905 6.560762 13.277839 26.221155 49.710177 89.349442 159.495694
2025-06-15 2.820175 6.364520 13.148078 26.451072 50.973407 92.924893 168.084903
2025-06-22 2.745608 6.335512 13.331178 27.267068 53.316390 98.423291 180.125011
2025-06-29 2.550350 6.036525 12.971128 27.033980 53.738791 100.617994 186.582864
2025-07-06 2.252692 5.490201 12.083663 25.729749 52.112484 99.150490 186.616880